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Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. These discussions highlighted benefits such as more consistent water flow, minimising the risks of flood and drought, and the potential for discounted hydroelectricity produced by the Dam. For Ethiopia, GERD is considered an economic game-changer. Concern has focused in particular on Lake Turkana, which derives 90 per cent of its water from the Omo River on which the Gilgel Gibe III Dam was built. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation (Salman, 2017). For nearly a century, as a legacy of colonialism, Egypt enjoyed what Tekuya referred to as a hydro-hegemony over the Nile; despite Ethiopia contributing 86% to its waters. GIGA Focus No. per year, that would constitute a drought and, according to Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia would have to release some of the water in the dams reservoir to deal with the drought. The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who laid the foundation stone in 2011, said the dam would be built without begging for money . On March 4, 1909, the Copyright Act of 1909 became law, making infringement of a copyright a federal crime for the first time. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. Given the fact that the conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the GERD seems to be among the most pressing issues in the region, it might be advisable for emphasis to be placed on securing a trilateral agreement that secures the peace between these three countries first. The 10-year filling time of GERD will likely contribute to fastened salinisation in Egypt. In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. - Ethiopia's massive. This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. Moreover, with GERD, Ethiopia opts for a hydropower expansion strategy on the Blue Nile, and not an irrigation strategy. Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. Neither the Egyptian nor the Ethiopian governments received positive domestic feedback on their agreement. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. At that point, the lake that . Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. Basically, Ethiopia should cooperate with the other riparian states in developing and adopting an effective drought mitigation protocol, one that includes the possibility that GERD managers may have to release water from the reservoir, when necessary, to mitigate droughts. Moreover, after the completion of the GERD, Egypt could run short of water if the operation of the GERD was not carefully coordinated with that of the AHD. Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . This has now changed due to political consolidation over the past two decades and the advent of alternative sources of external finance (to the traditional multilateral development banks), not least from China (Gebreluel, 2014;IDS, 2013). It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Consequently, it suits Egypts interests in this context to argue that the DoP is binding, that it precludes any net loss of flow and therefore that the use of the Dam for irrigation purposes is prohibited. European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. The Washington Quarterly, 37(2), 25-37. The treaties also purported to give Egypt veto power over upstream projects. casting the DoP as a treaty) has the potential to abrogate the Nile Waters Treaties that Egypt holds so dear. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. (2017). As they consider this controversial issue, all 11 riparian countries should seek to improve relations among themselves beyond their relationship with the Nile, especially in mutually beneficial areas such as trade; educational and cultural exchanges; the management of natural resources, including water; dealing with threats to peace and security, including the suppression and prevention of terrorism and extremism; and confronting major challenges to economic growth and poverty alleviation, such as climate change, widespread illiteracy, and poor infrastructure. Despite the intense disagreements, though, Ethiopia continues to move forward with the dam, arguing that the hydroelectric project will significantly improve livelihoods in the region more broadly. It will be the largest hydropower project in Africa. Lastly, over-year storage facilities upstream in Ethiopia will allow Sudan to increase its water use. The drying up of this in Central Asia has been called the worlds worst environmental catastrophe. The GDP per capita in Ethiopia is only $475. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020). These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. I agree with the delivery of the newsletter. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. At stake, too, is . The New Arab (2020a). Monday January 2, 2017. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. The final touches to these plans were added in 2005 and 2007, and one involves nine hydroelectric dams along the Gebale Dawa to produce some 1,300 MW of electricity for export. The latter, in Article 2(4), allocated acquired rights of 66% of Nile water to Egypt and 22% to Sudan (with the remaining 12% attributed to leakage). Even then, the initial studies did not extend beyond the borders with Kenya. As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. Could the Nile dispute be an opportunity to boost freshwater technology? One senior advisor to former Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi alluded to it when he said that Ethiopia will supply the electricity, Sudan the food, and Egypt the money. To which we might add, and South Sudan will supply the oil.. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. July 26, 2022. Maguid, M.A. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and hydroelectric project is located 700 km northeast of the capital city Addis Abeba, in the Benishangul--Gumaz region of Ethiopia, along the Blue Nile River. Attempts to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute over the past decade have reached a deadlock. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. The various warnings by experts about the dangers of the new Ethiopian dam have begun to cause panic among Egyptians, to the point of belief that the Aswan Dam will collapse once the Renaissance is completed. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. Nile Basins GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. On March 4, 1834, the town of York in the British colony of Canada was incorporated as the City of Toronto. By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. The so-called Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) is Africa's biggest hydroelectric project to date. The unilateral decision taken by Ethiopia - which never recognised the 1959 agreement but had previously not been able to challenge it in fact - to build the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 represents a major political challenge to the 1959 Agreement. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. Cooperation among the three countries has never been more important as demand for water rises, she added, due to factors such as population growth, urbanization and industrialization. Four of these would potentially be located on the main river and one would eventually evolve into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is perhaps the most glaring demonstration of environmental or climate injustice that the youngest continent (60 percent of the population is below the age of twenty-five) is also the one that has historically least contributed to the industrial emissions of greenhouse gases yet is likely the one that will be hardest affected by meteorological It too has legal arguments it could adduce in support of its position that the Dam is permitted under international law. Perhaps the most significant project in the 2003 plan was the Chemoga-Yeda Hydroelectric Project, a series of five small dams on Blue Nile tributaries and two dams on the Genale River with a couple more envisioned for a later phase. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. It imports about half its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually. The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. India dispatch: Supreme Court limits DNA paternity testing in divorce proceedings, prioritizing childrens privacy rights, US dispatch: Texas case could limit access to abortion medication, Copyright infringement made federal crime. Even in 2023, there are only 46 state parties, with key actors such as the US, Canada and Brazil remaining outside the Conventions regime. This crisis has raised great concerns among large sectors of the Egyptian society, especially in light of recalling such statements as "water war," "water militarization," "military management of the GERD crisis," "water terrorism," and "Ethiopian hydro-hegemony over the Nile Basin" [ 1, 2 ]. Review a brief history of copyright in the United States. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. The CFA was a political success for the eight upstream states such as Ethiopia as it favoured those states and isolated the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan and made them appear recalcitrant. As a result, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has recognised water security as a possible threat to international peace. Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. . This is because the VCLT allows an older treaty to be rescinded by a new one if the new one concerns the same topic (Article 59). Download PDF 1.40 MB. The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). Already, the United States has threatened to withhold development aid to Ethiopia if the conflict is not resolved and an agreement reached. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. As stipulated by an Agreement of 1959 (see:Nile Main Conflict), Egypt and Sudan presented for several decades a common position vis--vis other riparians regarding the utilisation and management of Nile waters. Workers move iron girders from a crane at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. Second, as also noted above, the Dam is to be used for electricity generation, not irrigation. At 6,000 MW, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed at 2017(IPoE, 2013). Another impressive snippet of information is that the Government of Ethiopia is financing the entire project, along with loans mainly from China. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . However, the Convention took almost twenty years to enter into force (from 1997 to 2014) due to the lack of necessary ratifications by states. Ethiopia, however, prefers to have the flexibility to make decisions on how to deal with droughts. Third, Egypt should abandon continued references to its so-called natural historical rights (i.e., the water rights granted Egypt by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan). Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) constitutes a real crisis for the Egyptian regime, where Ethiopia several times blamed Egypt for the failure of negotiations conducted between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the dam. Cairo . It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. Another difficulty for Egypt is that making this argument (i.e. The New Arab (2020b). Indeed, the ICJ confirmed in Gabikovo-Nagymaros Project that all riparian states have a basic right to an equitable and reasonable sharing of the resources of the watercourse. Moreover, these principles were pulled through into the DoP agreed by both Egypt and Ethiopia. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. Disadvantages Slow process Could be washed to the wrong direction Start up costs Lesson 4: Long term investment, It can't cope with he propagation rate of water hyacinth. Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. The dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia (an area about four times the size of Cairo), displace approximately 20,000 people in Ethiopia, and create a reservoir that will hold around 70 billion cubic . [35] The lack of international financing for projects on the Blue Nile River has persistently been attributed to Egypt's campaign to keep control on the Nile water share. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. Omar, A. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. It also codified the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation and no significant harm (essentially importing from the Watercourses Convention). Zegabi East Africa News (2015). Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. The most important of these treaties is the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (the Watercourses Convention). Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the Blue Nile dam, which Egypt fears will imperil its water supply. In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. At the same. Also, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry later held the Egyptian side accountable for failure of these negotiations. After announcing the dam's construction, and with a view to the increasing tensions, the Ethiopian government invited both Egypt and Sudan to form an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to solicit understanding of the benefits, costs and impacts of the GERD. These parallel developments appear to be elements of a bigger hydro-political strategy wherein the riparian countries aim to increase their water utilisation to put facts on the ground (and underpin legal claims based on those uses) and increase their bargaining position for renegotiations of volumetric water allocations.